Goal

Streaming development of the HitHub App on Twitch Stream.

Notes

I knew I needed some way to weight the Priors by their recency for the different fighters. I decided to use an Exponential Decay function based on the number of days since the fight was observed. This way, more recent fights are weighted more heavily than those from years ago. I figured it would be more interesting to start from the date of the fighter's last fight (i.e their most recent fight is the one that has the highest effect on their Priors). I also found out that the typical UFC fighter fights twice a year (with the typical distance between fights for a fighter being roughly ~180 days).

Results

• Developed a way to scale priors by the amount of time since the information was collected

Next Time

• Implement this prior scaling feature into the prior generation of the Fighter class.